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Edward O. (Oz) Garton, Professor of Wildlife Ecology and Statistics
Fish and Wildlife Department
October 26 - Idaho Commons Whitewater Room
Abstract: Can scientists forecast the future? Will we use their forecasts to make the right decisions? Will our beliefs affect what we see happening? The reintroduction of wolves to Yellowstone National Park and River of No Return Wilderness in Central Idaho and wolves' rapid population growth have become a flash-point for disagreements amongst people passionately valuing natural systems and their resources in different ways. I was asked by the National Park Service in 1989 to forecast the impact on the Northern Yellowstone elk herd of a wolf reintroduction to Yellowstone National Park. Let's look briefly at the basis for those forecasts, the results of the reintroduction, its success and use this interesting story to address these 4 questions.